Interesting (But Not Surprising) Results
Recently, a survey called Lutheran Religious Life Survey was completed. It tracked numerical statistics along with conversion rates. There was also an aspect of the survey that dealt with racial issues. The report with the results and findings was emailed to rostered church workers but is easily accessible to anyone who wants to read through it. In case you aren’t interested in charts and graphs and simply want the tl/dr version, below are the interesting (but not surprising) results.
Key Findings
This report primarily describes LRLS 2023 findings in just a few areas where the LRLS 2023 asked new or expanded questions, most notably congregational growth trajectories and personal conversion histories. Some key findings are:
• LCMS members dramatically overestimate the health of LCMS congregations: they are 3 times likelier to report growth than official attendance data suggests, and 70% less likely to report decline than official attendance data suggests.
• LCMS members in larger churches are the most likely to have incorrect, excessively optimistic beliefs about LCMS membership decline.
• About 3% of LCMS members are converts from outside of Christianity, 8% from other non-Lutheran Christian backgrounds, and 20% from other Lutheran or similar denominations.
• “Confessional” churches receive more converts than “Missional” churches, and “Traditional” churches receive more converts than “Contemporary” services. Smaller LCMS churches in rural areas or small towns receive higher rates of converts than large urban or suburban congregations. Younger converts to the LCMS are also much likelier to be women than lifelong LCMS members of the same age.
• Exposure to LCMS primary and secondary schooling is a major factor shaping conversion: many people become LCMS due to their experiences in LCMS schools, and LCMS children enrolled in LCMS schools may have higher rates of remaining LCMS.
• Large shares of LCMS members experienced serious religious doubts at age 18 or earlier, and in particular about 2/3 of converts into the LCMS from non-Christian backgrounds experienced serious doubts in their prior faith before age 30. About 10% of lifelong LCMS members experienced serious religious doubts before age 16.
• Conversion into the LCMS is most commonly associated with individuals finding a welcoming community which provides a sense of connection to history, and/or converts arrive via a romantic connection to an LCMS member. About 1/3 of converts into the LCMS experienced romantic attachments as a key element of their conversion, and an additional 1/3 were largely motivated by a search for community. A conviction that prior beliefs were wrong was only the primary influence on about 1 in 5 converts.
• More liturgical churches, and churches that respondents identify as “Confessional and Traditional,” not only receive more converts, but are experiencing less severe declines in attendance and membership, and may have younger membership profiles.
• Belief in inherent racial hierarchies, whether divinely created or naturalistically evolved, is uncommon in the LCMS: only about 20% of members accept any version of these statements, and likely fewer than 5% are seriously committed to these views. Moreover, belief in racial hierarchy is most common among LCMS members who attend church irregularly or not at all.
• Young LCMS members have uniquely intense views prioritizing the visible means of grace as key factors in salvation, whereas older LCMS members are somewhat less likely to emphasize the visible means of grace.
Among many other things, these findings cause me to wonder why so many church planting initiatives and evangelism projects remain insistent on following a “Jesus on the loose in your neighborhood” approach rather than simply preaching the Word and administering the Sacrament faithfully. Why are districts continuing to funnel hundreds of thousands of dollars into non-traditional mission efforts when the stats clearly tell us it’s not what people who desire to be Lutheran are after? Further, our young pastors for the most part want nothing to do with gimmicks and games. It makes no sense to me to pursue growth in ways we know it won’t happen—or if it does, it will do so in this manner.
The better way is unashamed, Confessional Lutheranism. Maybe start a faithful, classical school. Read the full report. Look at the stats. People come to Lutheran churches because they want to be Lutheran. They want their children to hear the Word alongside their parents and not kicked out to some “children’s church” with bouncy houses and curly slides. Faithfulness and reverence leads to retention and growth. It might come only one person at a time, but for even that one, the angels in heaven rejoice!